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Degree: Law with Social Sciences (Bachelors) - Warwick University
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Increasing the level of direct taxes to reduce the fiscal deficit would lead to a disincentive to work amongst the rich as they will be less willing to work overtime and more inclined to reduce working hours and people on benefits would not find an incentive to work. It could mean that the tax revenues for the government would fall at a very high tax rate if we are initially on the elastic side of the laffer curve. (DIAGRAM). It would also lead to more tax avoidance and tax evasion amongst the rich which could also lead to tax exiles. Therefore tax revenue will fall in the long run causing a larger fiscal deficit. However it will improve the distribution of income in the UK.see more
If inflation in the UK is relatively lower than elsewhere, then UK exports will become more competitive and there will be an increase in demand for Pound Sterling to buy UK goods. Also foreign goods will be less competitive and so UK citizens will buy less imports.
Therefore countries with lower inflation rates tend to see an appreciation in the value of their currency.
2. Interest Rates
If UK interest rates rise relative to elsewhere, it will become more attractive to deposit money in the UK. You will get a better rate of return from saving in UK banks, therefore demand for Sterling will rise. This is known as “hot money flows” and is an important short run factor in determining the value of a currency. Higher interest rates cause an appreciation.
Speculators predict which way market forces will move.
If speculators believe the sterling will rise in the future, they will demand more now to be able to make a profit. This increase in demand will cause the value to rise. Therefore movements in the exchange rate do not always reflect economic fundamentals, but are often driven by the sentiments of the financial markets. For example, if markets see news which makes an interest rate increase more likely, the value of the pound will probably rise in anticipation.
4. Change in Competitiveness
If British goods become more attractive and competitive this will also cause the value of the Exchange Rate to rise. This is important for determining the long run value of the Pound. This is similar factor to low inflation.
5. Relative strength of other currencies.
In 2010 and 2011, the value of the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc rose because markets were worried about all the other major economies – US and EU. Therefore, despite low interest rates and low growth in Japan, the Yen kept appreciating.
6. Balance of Payments
A deficit on the current account means that the value of imports (of goods and services) is greater than the value of exports. If this is financed by a surplus on the financial / capital account then this is OK. But a country, who struggles to attract enough capital inflows to finance a current account deficit, will see a depreciation in the currency. (For example current account deficit in US of 7% of GDP was one reason for depreciation of dollar in 2006-07)see more
MLC states that a devaluation (in the LR) will only have a positive effect on the current account if the sum of the elasticities of demand for exports and imports is negative and numerically greater than 1 (elastic).