What is the difference between unconditional and conditional probability?

Unconditional probability is a measure of the liklihood of a particular outcome relating to a series of independent events, where the outcome of one does not effect the outcome of another. For example, consider a bag of 20 marbles: 10 red & 10 blue. The probability of picking a red or blue marble is 1/2. If, on the 1st turn a red marble is picked and replaced, then the probability of picking a red or blue marble on the 2nd turn is also 1/2. In this example, the probability of picking a red or blue marble is unconditional since it is not impacted by the outcome of the previous pick.Conditional probability is similar, but concerns dependent events, where the outcome of one event does effect the outcome of another. Consider the above example: lets assume that on turn 1 a red marble is picked but not replaced. Therefore, for turn 2 there are a total of 19 marbles to choose from, 9 of which are red and 10 of which are blue. Now, the probability of picking a red marble is 9/19 and of picking a blue is 10/19. It is clear that this time the probability does not remain fixed. This is because the events are dependent, meaning that the outcomes are conditional. Resultantly, the probabilities associated with the outcomes of turn 2 are directly impacted by the outcome of turn 1.

OH
Answered by Oliver H. Maths tutor

10010 Views

See similar Maths GCSE tutors

Related Maths GCSE answers

All answers ▸

A is the point with coordinates (5, 9) B is the point with coordinates (d, 15) The gradient of the line AB is 3 Work out the value of d.


X is a prime number higher than the square of 5 and lower than the square of 7. What are the smallest and largest possible values for X?


Solve x^2 = 4(x-3)^2


Expand and simplify 3(m + 4) – 2(4m + 1)


We're here to help

contact us iconContact ustelephone icon+44 (0) 203 773 6020
Facebook logoInstagram logoLinkedIn logo

MyTutor is part of the IXL family of brands:

© 2025 by IXL Learning