How can I know whether to multiply or add probabilities?

We can only add probabilities when the events are alternatives. For example, let's say we want to calculate the probability that we achieve an A or a B or a C in a given exam. We cannot achieve an A and B for the same exam, so these events are indeed alternatives.

So let's say there's a 1/10 chance of getting an A, a 3/10 chance of getting a B and 4/10 chance of getting a C. The chance that we get either an A, B or C would be the sum of the individual probabilities: (1/10 + 3/10 + 4/10), so 8/10. 

Think about the problem numerically. We know that all probabilities lie in the range from 0 to 1. Addition of such numbers will lead to an increased probability value. Multiplication of such numbers will lead to a decreased probability value. In this case, we'd expect the probability of attaining A or B or C to be greater than the probability of simply attaining an A. And yes, we have an 8/10 chance of attaining an A,B or C and only a 1/10 chance of attaining an A - this is what we'd expect. 

We multiply probabilites when we want events to occur simultaneously, or consecutively. Let's say we're going to sit the same exam twice. We want to find the probability of attaining a C first time and an A on the re-sit. Before we dive in let's think about the expected probability value: getting a C AND THEN an A is a very unique scenario, and as such we'd expect quite a low probability in relation to the probabilities of individual events. This hints to us that multiplication could be the correct method.

So in this case, yes, we can say that the probability of getting a C and then an A is (4/10 * 1/10), so 1/25. 

NO
Answered by Nathan O. Maths tutor

73989 Views

See similar Maths GCSE tutors

Related Maths GCSE answers

All answers ▸

Solve the simultaneous equations: x^2 + y^2 = 29 and y - x = 3


GCSE Maths: Expand and simpify 14(3x-7y)-2x(21-y)


A rectangle has an area of 20cm^2. Its length and width are enlarged by a factor of 3. Find the area of the enlarged rectangle.


An area of a garden needs to be tiled. It consists of a square area of 10m by 10m, with an outdoor pool in the middle of radius 3m. The tiles to be used are 50cm by 50cm, and cost 50p per tile. Find out how much it will cost to tile the area.


We're here to help

contact us iconContact usWhatsapp logoMessage us on Whatsapptelephone icon+44 (0) 203 773 6020
Facebook logoInstagram logoLinkedIn logo

© MyTutorWeb Ltd 2013–2025

Terms & Conditions|Privacy Policy
Cookie Preferences